David Cameron with Herman van Rompuy
As Britain trundles towards a possible referendum on EU membership, people are beginning to ask what kind of result it might throw up.
David Cameron is gambling that if he manages to renegotiate some powers away from Brussels, voters will prefer this new settlement to not being in the union at all. And if past experience is to be believed, he has reason to be optimistic: when asked to assent to a plan from Brussels, voters across Europe tend to answer yes.
The list below of all the European plebiscites that have taken place in the union’s history shows that voters have only said no to the EU nine times out of the 36 referendums that have been held. The list was compiled by Matt Qvortrup, an expert on referendums at Cranfield University.
But those pushing for an exit from the EU will be heartened to see that voters appear to be getting more eurosceptic. Of the last six euro votes that have been held, three have resulted in a no vote.
Here is the full list; let us know if you spot any trends or themes of your own:
1. France 1972 (Enlargement) 68.3% YES
2. Ireland 1972 – EEC Membership 83.1% YES
3. Norway 1972 EEC Membership 53% NO
4. United Kingdom 1975 (Renegotiation) 67% YES
5. Denmark 1986 (Single Act) 56% YES
6. Ireland 1987 (Single Act) 69% YES
7. Ireland 1992 (Maastricht) 69% YES
8. Denmark 1992 (Maastricht) 51% NO
9. France 1992 (Single Act) 51% YES
10. Denmark 1993 (Maastricht) 56% YES
11. Austria 1994 (Membership) 66% YES
12. Finland 1994 (Membership) 59% YES
13. Sweden 1994 Membership): 53% YES
14. Norway 1994 (Membership) 52% NO
15. Ireland 1998 (Amsterdam Treaty) 56% YES
16. Denmark 1998 (Amsterdam Treaty) 55% YES
17. Denmark 2000 (Euro) 56% NO
18. Ireland 2001 (Nice Treaty) 53% NO
19. Ireland 2002 (Nice Treaty) 62% YES
20. Sweden 2003 (Euro) 53% NO
21. Slovakia 2003 94 % YES
22. Malta 2004 (Membership) 53% YES
23. Slovenia 2004 (Membership) 89% YES
24. Hungary 2004 (Membership) 84% YES
25. Lithuania 2004 (Membership) 89% YES
26. Poland 2004 (Membership) 77%YES
27. Czech Republic 2004 (Membership) 77% YES
28. Estonia 2004 (Membership) 64% YES
29. Latvia 2004 (Membership) 67% YES
30. Spain 2005 (European Constitution) 7% YES
31. France 2005 (European Constitution) 54% NO
32. Netherlands 2005 (European Constitution) 61% NO
33. Luxembourg 2005 (European Constitution) 56% YES
34. Ireland 2009 (Lisbon Treaty) 53% NO
35. Ireland (Revised Lisbon treaty) 67% YES
36. Ireland 2012 (EU Fiscal Compact) 60% YES
37. Croatia 2012 (Membership) 67% YES
Jim Pickard
Kiran Stacey