The body politic is showing signs of advanced election fever. Of course there may not be an election on November 1 or November 8 - Gordon Brown is said by colleagues to be still undecided - but the symptoms are everywhere.

Take George Osborne’s plan to tax wealthy non-domiciled residents £25,000 a year: first came Labour’s rebuttal, then the Tory counter-rebuttal, then Labour’s rebuttal of the counter-rebuttal and - finally - the  Tory reply to that. That kind of intense politics only ever happens during an election campaign.

Then look at Gordon Brown’s visit to Iraq, a headline grabbing trip clearly timed to overshadow the Tory conference. Then his decision to announce troop withdrawals having previously made great play of the fact he would make his statement when the Commons returns next Monday.

Normally the Tories would have bit their lip in the tradition of taking a non-partisan line on issues of national security. Instead Liam Fox, Tory defence spokesman, launched a scathing attack on Mr Brown, accusing him of a "cynical exploitation of  our armed forces".

Then there is the news that Lord Darzi is bringing forward at Mr Brown’s request publication of his report on the NHS to this Thursday. Little wonder speculation is mounting that Mr Brown’s trip to the Palace to start the election campaign could come on Tuesday October 9.

Of course Mr Brown could surprise everyone and announce next week the election is off. But such is the state of expectation - indeed hype - generated by Mr Brown’s own team that Labour would suffer a serious bout of deflation if polling is delayed until next year.

As for David Cameron, it would give his party vital momentum through this autumn, allowing him to build on a successful and galvanising conferfence in Blackpool.

I can’t see how Mr Brown can back down now without suffering severe self-inflicted damage in the process. An election on November 1 may be a bit of a push in terms of Labour preparing their campaign: my money is on polling on November 8.

There is a scenario for next week’s Tory conference in Blackpool which sees the party unite in the face of an imminent election, rally behind David Cameron and defy the media and Labour ministers preparing for a bloodbath.

It is a scenario to which I subscribe. The Conservatives may be in a depressed state, but are they suicidal? On balance, I think the answer is that most of them are not. But Mr Cameron will be living on his nerves for three long conference days and nights before he makes one of the most important speeches of his life on Wednesday.

No doubt he will make a good speech - he usually does - but will the party have imploded before then? Could John Bercow, a Tory liberal, or some other disillusioned MP defect to Labour on the eve of the conference? Will the Tory right keep quiet?

Reading Norman Tebbit’s comments in The Times today makes me wonder whether there really are some elements in the party who would rather maintain the ideological purity of Thatcherism than win an election. It is all so reminiscent of Labour in the 1980s.

Lord Tebbit pours scorn on Mr Cameron - the "public relations guy" - whom he claims has never spent much time in the real world. Gordon Brown, by contrast, is a "clever man" for whom the Chingford Polecat has "considerable regard".

In better times Mr Cameron might actually welcome an attack from Tebbo in the way that Tony Blair used to like being attacked by the unions. It suggests he is actually changing the party.

But in his weakened state, Lord Tebbit is a menace. He also represents a faction in the Tory party which seems to genuinely prefer Gordon Brown’s flag-waving Labour leadership to what they see is the limp-wristed Conservatism offered by Mr Cameron.

If the Tory right (and its cheerleaders in the Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph) succeed next week they could mortally wound Mr Cameron. But what would their annointed successor - David Davis - inherit? A smouldering ruin of a party coming to terms with its fourth electoral humiliation in a row.

Is that what they really want? Worryingly for Mr Cameron, the answer may be Yes.

It was a most unusual pre-election speech. For the first time I can remember, a party leader addressed his annual conference without even bothering to attack or mock any of his political rivals.

This was Gordon Brown in full "new politics" mode. Since he governs for the whole country, there is no need to even acknowledge the existence of other parties. Neither David Cameron nor the Conservatives (let alone the Liberal Democrats) were mentioned in his Bournemouth speech.

But make no mistake, Mr Brown and his party are ready for an early poll. His discourse on rising aspiration in Britain covered all the ground on which he expects to be fighting an election - health, education, crime.

It was a personal speech, setting out his commitment to public services and "personalising" them for the 21st century. And it was the speech of a politician who looks comfortable in his own skin: the angst of the Brown-Blair feud is now in the past.

His allies say that if there is not an election this autumn, the country will be given their say by the spring of 2008 at the latest. And if you needed any further confirmation, the soundtrack booming out of the Bournemouth PA before Mr Brown’s arrival said it all: Republica’s "Ready to Go".

Has the Northern Rock crisis delivered a serious blow to Gordon Brown’s reputation as the dependable helmsman of Britain’s economy?

On the face of it the answer should be Yes. The sight of queues of panicking savers in the High Street will linger in the memory and the Conservatives have assembled a compelling political line that the whole affair is symptomatic of an unstable economy built on "a mountain of debt".

But privately, senior Tories are doubtful the affair will cause Mr Brown lasting damage. Nobody (apart from the shareholders in Northern Rock) lost money in the affair, and the former Iron Chancellor’s record will need something more spectacular (unemployment and home repossessions, perhaps) to come tumbling down.

Take a look at the Tempus poll in the Times this week and you see another reason why the Tories are still wary of fighting an election on the economy. Mr Brown and Alistair Darling, his chancellor, continue to be far more trusted in difficult economic times than David Cameron and George Osborne, the shadow chancellor.

And there’s another factor. Remember John Major winning an election in 1992 in the teeth of a recession? The public sometimes cling to what they know in times of trouble (the incumbent) rather than take a leap into the unknown.

So even if the economy nosedives (highly unlikely) Mr Cameron may still be fighting the next election on what he calls the "social recession" - an admission that Mr Brown has the economy right but we just don’t feel happier as a society.