Westminster blog

Having stuck my neck out and predicted a November election yesterday (while some of my colleagues were saying the opposite), there’s no point backing away now.

I don’t think the headline opinion polls taken in the immediate aftermath of David Cameron’s speech to the Tory conference will make much difference to Gordon Brown as he spends the weekend deciding whether to go to the polls. One of his colleagues tells me he would be "mad" to take much notice of them.

MPs in Labour marginal seats may be getting jumpy after the brilliant Tory move on inheritance tax, but Mr Brown still has several weeks to deconstruct that policy or to come up with some distraction of his own.

The polling still puts Labour within striking distance of a winning 40 per cent share, while the underlying research still gives Mr Brown big leads over Mr Cameron in terms of who the public regards as having the best qualities to be a good prime minister.

Leaving aside the little fact that Mr Brown still has to make up his mind and only he knows what will happen, let me just map out a little "fantasy Gordon" scenario for how the next few days could pan out.

Over the weekend he studies the polls, including the marginal data, and decides that although a November poll is a gamble, things could be much worse for him if he delays.

The economy is slowing down and the Tories will have a huge morale boost if the prime minister looks like he is running away from a fight from David Cameron. Imagine what PM’s questions would sound like next Wednesday. Momentum would be running strongly with the Tories.

So Mr Brown takes the plunge and goes for the election. I would guess the decision will be leaked out over the weekend, possibly to the Sunday newspapers.

On Monday he makes a Commons statement on Iraq. I would imagine that he will give a much broader and longer term guide to Britain’s continued presence in the Basra area than he did on that ill-judged visit to Iraq earlier in the week.

On Tuesday Alistair Darling, chancellor, will deliver his mini-budget. A big splurge on health spending will grab the headlines, along with him pulling some tax rabbit out of the hat. An attack on "non-dom" wealthy foreigners perhaps, to match the Tory proposals? A tax cut elsewhere?

Then Mr Brown heads to the Palace to ask for the dissolution of parliament. Iraq will have been neutralised, the NHS puffed up with cash and the Tories wrong-footed on tax. Game on.

For what it’s worth, the collective wisdom/ignorance of Westminster journalists is (as I write this) that an election is back on. Ben Brogan’s Daily Mail blog, sets out a few reasons why doubts have set in for those who predicted it was off.

The truth is that none of us know. But the pleasure of being a journalist is making these low-cost political guesses. For Mr Brown, the calculation is altogether more serious.

Westminster is buzzing with rumours that Gordon Brown is about to pull the plug on an autumn election. After David Cameron’s notes-free tour de force at the Tory conference in Blackpool, there suddenly seems to be an outbreak of nerves in the prime minister’s camp.

The most detailed explanation I’ve seen of why Mr Brown might "bottle" an election comes in Ben Brogan’s Daily Mail blog. Some of the Labour excuses for abandoning a November poll are so ludicrous and self-serving they could only have been cooked up by somebody in full panic mode.

The idea that Mr Brown wants more time to unpick the details of the Tory inheritance tax plans – apparently a three week election campaign is simply not long enough – is absurd. As for the idea that the PM is too focussed on fighting foot-and-mouth disease….give me a break.

Does that mean the election is off though? I’ve just spoken to a very senior colleague of Mr Brown who gave quite the opposite impression. This person said it would be "mad" to take too much notice of the inevitable bounce Mr Cameron will get in the polls after the party conference.

Indeed at least one poll – in tomorrow’s Guardian – will show the Tories achieving a substantial bounce. But this Brownite says you have to look at the underlying picture.

I took away from our chat that the election was very much on. Downing St officials tell me "no decision has been taken". Journalists in the lobby are split on whether it is on or off. In the end, only one person knows: Gordon Brown.

No doubt I will be proved completely wrong within hours, but I reckon Mr Brown has gone too far down the election path now to turn back. It is not just the prospect of facing Mr Cameron at Prime Minister’s Questions next Wednesday and a load of Tory MPs baying that he is a coward.

It is the fact that through the autumn, Mr Brown will be dogged by his indecision. Every downturn in the housing market, every poor piece of economic news, every "event", will be presented as proof that he cocked it up by failing to go in November. The momentum will be with the Tories. My guess: election on.

Should Gordon Brown call an election now? Have your say here.

It was a most unusual pre-election speech. For the first time I can remember, a party leader addressed his annual conference without even bothering to attack or mock any of his political rivals.

This was Gordon Brown in full "new politics" mode. Since he governs for the whole country, there is no need to even acknowledge the existence of other parties. Neither David Cameron nor the Conservatives (let alone the Liberal Democrats) were mentioned in his Bournemouth speech.

But make no mistake, Mr Brown and his party are ready for an early poll. His discourse on rising aspiration in Britain covered all the ground on which he expects to be fighting an election – health, education, crime.

It was a personal speech, setting out his commitment to public services and "personalising" them for the 21st century. And it was the speech of a politician who looks comfortable in his own skin: the angst of the Brown-Blair feud is now in the past.

His allies say that if there is not an election this autumn, the country will be given their say by the spring of 2008 at the latest. And if you needed any further confirmation, the soundtrack booming out of the Bournemouth PA before Mr Brown’s arrival said it all: Republica’s "Ready to Go".