The election and Britain’s AAA rating

November 10th, 2009 4:18pm

There has been another flurry of speculation in Westminster over the risks to the UK’s AAA rating. Britain is only being spared from a downgrade because the sovereign credit rating agencies expect the Tories to be elected, at least according to Fraser Nelson and others. It’s an interesting argument — so interesting that I thought it was worth asking the credit ratings agencies directly. Here is my Q&A with Brian Coulton, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings at Fitch.

Q: Is the expectation of a Conservative victory at the general election a significant factor in calculating the UK’s sovereign credit rating?

We are obviously aware that there will be an election next year but our capacity to forecast the election outcome would not be a sufficient basis to maintain a ‘AAA’ rating. We believe that fiscal policy objectives will be reorientated over the course of 2010 regardless of which government is in power.

Q: Is there a big enough difference between the Labour and Conservative spending plans for the election result to materially impact the Fitch stable rating outlook for the UK?

The judgement about the likelihood of a successful fiscal consolidation from 2011 which stabilises and reduces UK public debt ratios over the medium term will depend on a range of factors including the realism of economic forecasts, the actual details of spending and tax plans, as well as the overall parameters of the planned adjustment.

Q: Have either Labour or the Conservatives given Fitch analysts more information about their post-election spending plans than is available to the public?

No.

Q: The Fitch stable rating is based on the government articulating “a stronger fiscal consolidation program next year”. Do you expect that to happen regardless of who wins the election?

Yes. As we get into 2010 the downside risk of deflation will be significantly diminished and fiscal policy goals are expected to shift from stabilisation towards consolidation. It is a feature of large AAA sovereigns like the UK - which have exceptional near term funding flexibility - that they can “sequence” fiscal policy goals in this manner and act in the near term to prevent an unnecessarily deep recession. But the re-orientation does need to happen during 2010.

Q: Is the likelihood of a hung parliament a factor in your calculations? Is it the election outcome that would most threaten the UK’s sovereign credit rating?

We detect a growing cross party consensus that fiscal adjustment needs to happen. A hung parliament could complicate the process of agreeing how this should be done but we do not believe it would lead to an impasse, unduly delaying the adjustment plans.

We’re running out of energy

November 9th, 2009 5:59pm

The Infrastructure Planning Commission is much more important than it sounds.

Depending on your point of view, it is either a] an undemocratic body which will impose unwelcome nuclear power stations and wind farms on unhappy villagers or b] the only way to prevent the lights going out in 10 years’ time.

One day it could be a case study in utilitarianism. Who should have the final say - the small minority or the big majority?

It’s a major issue because the IPC is about to start work. But the Tories would scrap it next year. Their argument is that such schemes can get built; companies just need to work harder to turn “nimbies” into supporters.

The counter-argument is that time is running out. Ironically, it was Greg Clark in the chamber this afternoon who kept repeating the phrase: “Why did they leave it so late?“. (A report this summer suggested power outages by 2017 the way things are going).

Well yes, it is Labour’s fault that we are in this situation. The dirtiest coal power stations will have to be closed in the run-up to 2015. Many nuclear power stations have less than a decade before they are wound down. And still UK renewables lag behind all EU countries bar Malta and Luxembourg (as this blog has mentioned before).

But if the British public won’t embrace more power - while demanding 24/7 energy supplies - surely the time has come for some form of compulsion? Even if that means angering environmental groups* and others? On this Labour seems to have a more practical policy than the Tories.

Ed Miliband, energy secretary, tried to make the case, gingerly, this afternoon: “Saying no everywhere will not be in the national interest,” he said.

The Tory approach is to let the secretary of state make individual rulings on schemes - subject to today’s national policy statements, released by the secretary of state. Therein could lie the potential for even more judicial reviews.

There is no doubt that business groups are worried about the Tory policy, as my colleagues wrote here.

The Institute of Directors said today:

“The establishment of the Infrastructure Planning Commission and the consultations on today’s national policy statements are important steps towards reducing these costly delays while preserving the democratic accountability that is properly part of the planning process. Now that the new regime is getting under way, it is important that nothing should be done to hinder the IPC’s ability to deliver quicker decisions on key infrastructure projects.”

*I know that Friends of the Earth and others want a more democratic system. But if the IPC delivers much-needed wind farms isn’t that the better of two evils?

Cameron and the Zagreb Zigzag

November 3rd, 2009 7:08pm

David Cameron will tomorrow raise the bugle to his lips and sound the retreat on the Lisbon treaty referendum. But he’ll tell his troops that they will fight another day as he pledges to repatriate powers. One thing to look out for is when he plans to trigger a formal re-negotiation and how. We’ve had a Cameron U-turn on the referendum — watch out for a  Zagreb zigzag on repatriation.

Some European diplomats think that Cameron is a pragmatic chap who has realised he cannot spend his first six months trying to reopen Lisbon. It would overshadow his fledgling government and could waste precious political capital, particularly if other European leaders ignore his pleas. (Remember that 14 member states need to support Cameron to even start renegotiation talks, while any changes require unanimity.)

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Klaus is close

November 3rd, 2009 11:05am

The Czech constitutional court has cleared the Lisbon Treaty, as my colleague in Warsaw reports here.

Klaus - the last man standing between David Cameron and Lisbon’s ratification - could now sign the treaty within a month. Now it’s just a waiting game for Cameron to drop his promised referendum on Lisbon, a pledge which was always going to be difficult to maintain.

Jean Eaglesham writes here that: “David Cameron is poised to rule out a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty….an announcement would come ‘very soon’.”

Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg answer questions on diversity

October 20th, 2009 11:39am

Brown, Cameron, and Clegg are answering questions - although separately - on diversity in parliament.

Further Reading:

Live Guardian Blog of the Speaker’s Conference

Watch the conference at the parliament website

Nick Robinson on the need for debate

Gordon Brown has said gay MPs and peers should to be allowed to hold civil partnership ceremonies inside the Palace of Westminster.

Financial pain - it’s not over yet

October 14th, 2009 6:13pm

Within the Westminster world there is a growing feeling that the financial crisis is over. Spring has sprung, daffodils are blooming, the stock market has (partially) recovered, unemployment figures are not as bad as expected - etc.

But many analysts are warning that the current recovery is almost entirely down to the actions of central government (QE, low interest rates) which will at some point have to unwind.

There is also the commercial property crash. The price of offices and shops may sound esoteric if not boring - but so did “sub-prime”, once upon a time.

My colleagues at Alphaville have done a great job of highlighting the risk to banks from the sector.

Continue reading "Financial pain - it’s not over yet"

An essential compendium of Legg puns

October 13th, 2009 10:39am

It will cost us an arm and a Legg

You’re pulling my Legg

Legg it

They’ve got Legg on their faces

They don’t have a Legg to stand on (Yes, Tony Wright MP did say this on Newsnight.)

Legg over

This story has Leggs

Putting all your Leggs in one basket

The first Legg of a long race

Shake a Legg

Dare we ask for more?

FT video: Analysis of David Cameron’s speech

October 8th, 2009 6:24pm

George Parker, FT political editor, analyses David Cameron’s last conference speech before the general election.

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FT video: What does business make of the conference?

October 8th, 2009 6:17pm

Brian Groom, FT business editor, assesses the reaction of business to the conference after a year of financial crisis.

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FT video: Are voters abandoning Labour in Bury North?

October 8th, 2009 11:58am

Jim Pickard, FT political correspondent, travelled to marginal Labour seat Bury North near Manchester to see how much of a chance the Tories have.  Follow the link below to watch the video.