FT video: Are voters abandoning Labour in Bury North?

October 8th, 2009 11:58am

Jim Pickard, FT political correspondent, travelled to marginal Labour seat Bury North near Manchester to see how much of a chance the Tories have.  Follow the link below to watch the video.

Lesley Garrett sings “Impossible Dream” to Labour gala

September 30th, 2009 5:44pm

At last night’s Labour gala dinner in Brighton Lesley Garrett treated paying guests to a rendition of Andy Williams’ classic, The Impossible Dream. Lyrics include:

“And the world will be better for this
That one man scorned and covered with scars
Still strove with his last ounce of courage
To reach the unreachable star.”

Hat tip: Dermot Finch

UPDATE

It gets worse. I’ve just checked out the lyrics. They include a string of allusions to inevitable defeat, unreachable stars and so on. “Impossible dream”, “unbeatable foe”, “unbearable sorrow”, “unreachable star”, “no matter how hopeless”, “to be willing to die”

The only positive comparison you could make is that the singer does want the world to be a better place. Otherwise, what an inappropriate choice. Whose crazy idea was this?

The day in pictures

September 29th, 2009 6:55pm

Brown Speech Live Blog

September 29th, 2009 2:25pm

For those who care, Will Straw has a “word cloud” which shows which words cropped up the most.

3.33 Well, that’s it folks. The prime minister has kissed his wife. The delegates are on their feet. They’ve been told that their “abiding duty” is to “stand, and fight, and win, and serve”. They’ve been shown the sunny uplands and been told to “never stop believing in the good sense of the British people”. Because the task is difficult “the triumph will be even greater”, he promises. It seems to have all gone down well in the hall.

3.29 Brown is already nabbing ideas from Obama. Curtis Mayfield’s ‘Move On Up’, which was used in Brown’s introductory video, was part of the Obama campaign. Great tune though. There is also a bit of Nixonian campaigning in the speech where you wouldn’t expect it. The pledge to “cure cancer in a generation”. Vintage Nixon, 1971.

3.24 (Jim) Labour will put a referendum on Proportional Representation in its election manifesto (to be held early in the next Parliament). This is interesting. My sources had told me there would be a cabinet-level meeting next week to discuss the issue. Alan Johnson had been among those calling for the referendum to take place on the same day as the election itself. Some of his colleagues thought this was bonkers. Clearly the home secretary has been over-ruled.

3.20 (Jim) Brown promises to combine the National Health Service with local care provision to make a new “National Care Service”. Our public policy editor Nick Timmins looks utterly baffled: “Does it actually mean anything,” he asks plaintively.

3.10 (Jim) I’m wondering about food analogies for the Brown delivery. If Mandelson was lemon sorbet yesterday, is Brown porridge? It’s all very worthy and fact-filled but I’m not feeling the feelgood factor.

3.16 (Jim again) Brown makes the pre-announced policy about a new right for cancer patients to have diagnostic tests carried out and completed within a week. Incidentally, do normal people ever use the phrase “general practioner”?

3.09 (Jim again) Gordon is promising to preserve our security while “never undermining our liberties”. It sounds like he is making a new policy pledge (”I can say to you today….”) as he says there will be no compulsory ID card for British citizens in the next Parliament. Cry freedom! Except that this policy is old. The home secretary in March (Jacqui Smith) said that the ID card would be voluntary.

3.05 It looks like he has sought inspiration from his father’s classic sermons to the kirk. He’s announced U-turn on 24-hour drinking. He said “markets need morals”. He wants “tough love” for “chaotic families”. Let’s see what he says about cleaning up politics.

3.03 So far this is shaping up to be a policy greatest hits speech. Very little about Gordon the man. The policy shopping-list is quite Clintonesque — a nod to every micro-group of voters. But you have to wonder whether he needs to open up more.

3.00 (Jim again) I thought the recent row over whether the UK needed to cut public spending had been resolved. But this seems to have passed Gordon by. “These are not cuts they would make because they have to,” he says of the Tories. “These are spending cuts they are making because they want to. It is not inevitable.”

2.58 We’re intrigued by the words on schools spending. “We will not cut support to our schools. We will not invest less, but more.” Now this could be a significant move to increase the education budget in real terms, which has big knock on effects for other departments. Or it could mean ring-fencing the schools budget.Or he could just be increasing spending in cash terms, while making real-terms savings. We’ll have to wait and see.

2.55 (Jim here) Brown claims that Britain is leading the charge on having a “green” economy. “We are already global leaders in wind power, green cars, clean coal and carbon capture”, he claims. The truth is somewhat different. Sorry to be difficult, but Britain is behind every other EU country on renewable energy - bar Malta, Cyprus and Belgium. Gordon has just promised to create “over a quarter of a million new green British jobs”. In previous months he has made similar pledges; for 100,000, 160,000 and 1m jobs. Which if any is true? Does the prime minister have the faintest clue?

2.54 Brown sings the virtues of a £1bn innovation fund. It’s not new.

2.53 “Any director of any banks who is negligent will be disqualified from holding any such post.” Seems stating the obvious. But how many bank directors have been disqualified?

2.51 (Jim here) I told you it was getting a tad Biblical. Gordon is now the Good Samaritan: “What the British people want to know is that their government will not pass by on the other side but will be on their side.”

2.48 Gordon is now lovebombing middle England. “Call them middle class values, call them traditional working class values, call them family values, call them all of these; these are the values of the mainstream majority; the anchor of Britain’s families, the best instincts of the British people, the soul of our party and the mission of our government.”

2.46 (Jim here) Gordon is moving into preacher territory with a string of parables. “Like the small businessman who came to see me when his credit dried up at the bank. He was crying with the shame of missing some payments, but so responsible was he, that he was determined that every penny he owed would be paid.” I myself have been having a few problems with my credit card - will the PM help me?

2.44 Tory government would bring back the cardboard shanty towns of the 1980s.

2.36 Oh how he loves big numbers. “A global deal that I can tell you will save 15m jobs!”

2.35 (Jim here). Brown praises his chancellor, Alistair Darling, saying “Alistair, you are doing an absolutely brilliant job.” Is this the same Darling that the PM tried to move out of the Treasury in June but was unable to because of his political weakness? Or another one.

2.34 This is a new Brown technique. He started with fighting talk — fight, fight, fight. Then he moves to a list of Labour’s achievements — but it’s deliberately long this time, rather than just poor speechwriting. The crowd love it. I can even hear whoops.

2.33 “My husband, my hero”. Groans in the press gallery.

2.32 This is so heavy with sugar it would rot your teeth. It moves seamlessly from herograms from Bono and Stiglitz to pics of kids in the playground. Labour aren’t pulling their punches.

2.31 The second propaganda video rolls. Younger people this time. And Curtis Mayfield, Move on Up…

2.30. “I know he loves our country”.

2.30 Sarah Brown is up. It’s her second turn at the Labour conference. The hot topic is already her dress.

2.28: Welcome to our live blog on the Gordon Brown speech. The queues for sandwiches have wound down and the faithfaul have taken their pews. Brown should be appearing soon. The propaganda video is rolling. Lots of shots of Sptifires and 1940s doctors. Oh, and Gordon smiling. This should be fun.

PM for PM?

September 29th, 2009 2:16pm

It is rare for a conference speech to win the praises of Matthew Engel, our political sketchwriter, whose shrewd observations are up there with the best of his trade.

But even he ponders this morning whether the prospect of PM for PM is now more likely after what was universally seen as a great speech yesterday by Lord Mandelson. “Yesterday morning I would have laughed in your face. Right now I am not quite so sure,” he says.

It’s also worth reading the witty sketch by Simon Hoggart, who acknowledged the genuine acclaim in the conference hall given to the business secretary by the party hordes…albeit before comparing him to a “slightly creepy uncle”.

“No matter that the speech was bonkers. The business secretary was by turns coy, kittenish, camp and crazed. Occasionally his voice rose to a squeak, his facial expressions were frankly weird, and now and again he slowed alarmingly as if his carburettor had cut out.”

Back in the real world, however. I went down to Hove (pictured below) this morning to talk to some locals about the prospects for Labour there; the party holds the seat with a majority of just 420. Did anyone mention any of the conference speeches? Nope.

Alan Johnson’s fan club

September 29th, 2009 1:38pm

It’s always struck me as a tad strange how the political winds blow behind certain individuals - and then shift direction within days. It wasn’t long ago that the entire Westminster bubble was discussing the idea of Alan Johnson (”the postie”, as he is described by some of Gordon Brown’s loyalists) as a future Labour leader. Now the winds appear to be behind Ed Miliband, after he was endorsed by Derek Simpson and a few others. There is often no rhyme or reason behind the shifts. One day’s hero is tomorrow’s zero - and vice versa. Is the younger Miliband really a rising star, or are you just repeating something you heard over coffee this morning? I’ve no idea.

Anyway, Charlie Bibby has captured this shot of Johnson’s speech at conference this morning. It speaks for itself.

(To be fair, it was a bit early in the day….but still….)

Investment, investment, investment, investment….cuts

September 15th, 2009 3:58pm

He finally said it. There will be cuts. But Gordon Brown waited until he was nearly half an hour into his speech to admit it. (Bottom of page 7 out of 8).

And he wedged the stuff about deficit, hard choices, sustainable finances, cutting costs into a handful of paragraphs. The rest of the speech was the usual glorious talk about saving the global economy, the national economy and the range of initiatives which Labour has thrown out in the last year. And - to be fair - there were two genuinely big policy pledges.

More paternity leave and the swift implementation* of the temporary workers directive will please unions and, you’d have thought, workers. The business lobby might not be so happy but neither concept is exactly a surprise (the only question on the directive was its exact timing).

*UPDATE

My eagle-eyed colleague Jean Eaglesham points out that the government is only putting the temporary workers directive on the statute book in the next Parliamentary year. This is not the same as the implementation date. We still don’t know when that is going to be. In other words, this may not be much of a gift to the unions (and temps) as it sounded at first.

How Teresa May plans to reform Britain’s welfare system

August 27th, 2009 12:07pm

That was a teaser headline.

I’ve just listened to the shadow welfare secretary for the best part of an hour and I still haven’t a clue what would change under a Tory government vis a vis the benefits system.

To be fair, I don’t normally cover DWP. An expert may have gleaned some policy gems from Ms May’s speech at the Policy Exchange HQ in Westminster this morning. Or maybe not.

Here are some immediate thoughts:

1] May believes that there are whole communities now where the social norm is “antisocial behaviour and idleness” rather than “hard work and discipline”. This seems to me like rather jarring language.

2] She would not answer my question about whether benefits could fall if RPI deflation continues (it’s potentially part of the solution to the national deficit). “I’m not going to answer it and I’m not going to give any answers today on benefits,” she said. “We’re not going to write a Budget now.”

3] Asked by Sam Coates of the Times if any of her policies were different to Labour, she came up with compulsory means-testing of people on incapacity benefit. Except - as I understand it - Labour is already (albeit slowly) going ahead with this.

4] For all the talk of Britain’s dreadful unemployment record, May doesn’t expect the jobless tally to fall under a Tory government. At least that’s what she seemed to say. “The government is predicting more than 2.8m unemployed in 2011, they are also predicting that unemployment is unlikely to return to pre-recession levels until 2016. That, there is the nature of the issue we’re dealing with - it is not going to be easy.

Sounds like expectation management to me. But it doesn’t fit easily with the criticism of Labour for letting unemployment rise in the first place (eg, “Britain faces losing yet another generation to worklessness unless urgent action is taken“).

5] May did signal that she will look at changes to housing benefit which took place a year ago, meaning that tenants instead of landlords currently get the money. Labour’s changes to housing benefit always seemed bizarre to me because they are likely to stop some property owners renting out buildings to people on benefits. May has no concrete plans to reverse the policy but said she was examining it.

No income tax, no VAT….

August 9th, 2009 9:11pm

Political pledges on value added tax tend to have a short shelf life. The strong Tory denials on Sunday of a reported “plan” to raise VAT to 20 per cent are no doubt true. But, with the public finances in such a dire state, the debate seems eerily reminiscent of a legendary Geoffrey Howe dodge.

In the run up to the 1979 election, Labour were obsessed with the Tories planning to double VAT. Howe and Thatcher dismissed it as a smear. Howe was pretty explicit: “We have absolutely no intention of doubling VAT.” The Daily Mail was so convinced, it included the “double VAT” charge in a splash on “Labour’s dirty dozen lies”, just days before the campaign concluded.

The trouble was that the Tories had already agreed a “massive” hike in VAT a good year before winning the election. Sure, they didn’t want to double the rate. The secret plan, hatched at Howe’s house on the Fentiman Road, was completely different: to raise VAT from 8 to 15 per cent. Howe announced it in his first Budget. This story by my colleague Nick Timmins (written when he was at the Independent) runs through the whole saga.

Howe was unapologetic in his memoirs, describing the row as “part of the small change of election campaigning”.

“We had no difficulty denying it. For there was no prospect, on even the most gloomy of expectations, of our having to go beyond a rate of 15 per cent.

Some critics afterwards thought it pedantically misleading to rest our case on the fact that twice 8 per cent (the then basic rate) was 16 and not 15 per cent.

They also overlooked the fact that some goods (about 6 per cent of the basket) were already taxed at 12.5 per cent: the weighted average impact of the existing dual rate was 8.5 per cent. So our denial was more than technically correct.”

Could Tories be on track for a landslide?

July 23rd, 2009 11:04am

There has been so much talk of hung Parliaments and small Tory majorities that it is refreshing to hear a contrary prediction.

For example, a Conservative landslide victory.

You’ll have heard of Mike Smithson, founder of Politicalbetting.com, one of the most popular blogs of its kind in cyberspace. His son Rob, a former Goldman Sachs banker (who is also involved in politicalbetting.com) runs a company, Resolver Systems, specialising in sophisticated spreadsheets for business clients.

He has come up with an election modelling system which - he believes - is more accurate than some of its existing rivals.

Instead of applying a national swing to all 646 Westminster seats universally, the model is based on more local data.

“If you go back to the 1950s you could do simple two-way swing analysis because the Conservatives and Labour had 95 per cent of the vote,” says Smithson. “Now the two parties have 65 per cent that makes traditional forecasting pretty inaccurate.”

For example, simply inputting a 10 per cent swing towards the Tories makes no sense in seats such as Richmond (which is overwhelmingly blue) or North Cornwall (which has Labour support of less than 10 per cent).

Key to the model is information - sourced regularly by ICM - on how people voted in 2005 and how they plan to vote this time. Also: how many people will stay at home.

More than 80 per cent of those who backed the Tories plan to do so again next year. But only about 65 per cent of former Labour voters seem likely to return to the red fold. More former Labour voters will turn to the Tories than to the Lib Dems.

In other words, much of the anti-Tory tactical voting of a decade ago will disappear.

The result for Labour is grim, according to the Smithson forecast. His modelling is almost equally bad for the Lib Dems because it shows the Tories seizing large numbers of previous yellow seats.

If you feed a typical recent opinion poll (Tories 38 per cent, Labour 28 per cent, Lib Dems 21 per cent) into www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ you get a Tory majority of 80 (320 seats to 240) while the Lib Dems keep 59 seats.

If you put the same data into Smithson’s model you come up with a majority of 98.

It shows the Tories at 375 (up 161), Labour at 216 (down 128) and Lib Dems at 31 (down 32).

This isn’t so incredible when you think that New Labour’s 12 per cent lead in 1997 translated into a majority of 175.

Here is one of his examples:

“Under the traditional models a seat like Finchley & Golders Green stays Labour. Under my model, the large number of Liberal Democrat voters moving to vote Conservative, combined with many Labour voters choosing to stay home, turns the seat blue with a 5,000 majority.”

I’m not saying that Smithson has the answer. But this is food for thought.

It is not inconsistent with the verdict of Ladbrokes, which has its lowest odds (4:1) on Labour getting a meagre 200 to 224 seats at the next general election. (By contrast, optimists can get 15:1 on Labour winning 250-274 seats)

Here is the website where you can download their spreadsheet and check out your local constituency: it is

www.resolversystems.com/election2010/

You can change any of the variables to take account of different levels of national support or entrenched “incumbent bias” (the fact that the sitting MP tends to get a reasonable fair wind - or did before the expenses scandal).

UPDATE

Smithson was convinced that the Tories will walk Norwich North. I’ve wagered him £3 (at 15:1) as a remote flyer on the basis that no one seems to know how the by-election will turn out. I’m guessing the Conservatives will win, but I think talk of a mega-majority could be misplaced.