Britain went to the polls on Thursday in a mix of local elections in England and national polls for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Voters also have their say in a referendum on changing the electoral system to the alternative vote. Read more
One rumour of recent days is that the Lib Dems are so demoralised about their impending AV defeat that none will bother to attend the official count down in Docklands. The theory adds to the relentlessly negative narrative about Clegg’s party.
In fact it’s not quite true. I’m told that Chris Huhne, Lord Ashdown, Danny Alexander, Charles Kennedy and Simon Hughes will all in fact be at Friday’s count, if not for the entire afternoon/evening. Read more
George Parker, political editor, tells the FT’s Daniel Garrahan that the referendum on the alternative vote has been dominated by party political bickering. And the cracks that have started to appear in the coalition will lead to a more business-like relationship between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Read more
I’ve just returned from the final No 2 AV rally at Methodist Central Hall in Westminster*. (Inexplicably the Yes rally is at 8.30pm tonight, after most journalists have gone home/to the pub.)
A succession of speakers took to the stage. One was Lord Owen, his lush hair in contrast to the shaved heads of the others – John Healey, Paul Boateng, William Hague - declaring the referendum was an unfortunate “experiment”. The peer revealed that Gordon Brown had offered the LibDems a referendum on PR (Owen’s preference) as well as AV.
Labour’s Healey was quite persuasive, albeit slightly party political, suggesting that Britain should be concentrating on more important issues such as job losses in the NHS. Read more
Two tests await Ed Miliband, Labour leader, and his party: polls across the country, and a referendum on the alternative voting system for which he is a principal campaigner. George Parker, political editor, talks to the leader of the UK opposition about the upcoming ballots, his call for a cultural change in the City o f London, and the coalition government’s deficit reduction strategy. Read more
Nick Clegg has been warned by senior Conservative MPs that they will wreak revenge on him for the Liberal Democrats’ “Easter uprising”, including frustrating his plans for elections to the House of Lords. Read more
With several weeks to go before the AV referendum the arguments are starting to get slightly repetitive. But Vince Cable has tried a different slant on the debate during this morning’s joint press conference with Ed Miliband.
Instead of citing other countries with AV (Fiji, Australia, Papua New Guinea) he chose the – not entirely comparable – example of Strictly Come Dancing. Read more
As it’s Guy Fawkes Day, at the end of a long run of bum-numbingly exhausting late night sittings, the idea of metaphorically blowing up parliament and all its antiquated working practices has a fleeting appeal. Read more
Westminster is alive again: the corridors are full, there a queues for the canteens, gossip is being traded. But even though a large chunk of the House is made up of new MPs, fresh faced, and hopefully refreshed after a long summer break, the mood already seems sour.
Lib Dems and Tories alike are still trying to come to terms with the coalition, and the first thing all MPs are being told after the summer is to vote against their own manifestos.
It is a very odd quirk of the bill for a referendum on AV that all parties will now vote against the position they argued for before the election. The Lib Dems believe AV doesn’t go far enough, while the Tories think it goes too far, but both will vote for the referendum as a central part of the coalition agreement. Labour doesn’t like the boundary change that is being bundled in with it and will vote against. Read more
The Australian election has been fun to observe from the other side of the planet, what with the back-stabbing of Kevin Rudd, the shaky campaign and the hung Parliament.
I have a curious fact about voting Down Under which you may not know about. In elections for the senate (their upper house) there are multiple candidates for some states such as Victoria and New South Wales. Because the system is AV* you have the “below the line” choice of listing up to 80 candidates in order of preference. Read more
The fledgling “yes” campaign for AV says it is too early to make premature judgments. The Electoral Reform Society, for example, says that polls will inevitably jump around given that the formal campaigns have not yet started. The referendum is not until May – and could even be in September if rebel Tory MPs and Labour MPs unite to amend the relevant bill.
But our analysis for today’s FT shows that the yes campaign was ahead by 28 points in May (according to ComRes) and as little as 1 point ahead in recent weeks (says YouGov). It may not be a co-incidence that support has dwindled just as backing for the Lib Dems (the main proponents of electoral reform) has also fallen sharply. Read more
The Guardian’s story that Labour is planning to vote against the AV bill as it currently stands is an important development in the passage of electoral reform. But Labour won’t be able to block the bill. What is really worrying pro-reform campaigners is the growing movement to change the date of the referendum. The FT revealed this morning that Labour is close to agreeing with Tory rebels to vote for an amendment for such a change.
Electoral reform campaigners
The “yes” movement calculates the bill will get through the Commons – rebel Tories will be whipped into submission on that point by party bosses who know that without it the coalition is likely to crumble.
But if those rebels team up with Labour to force a change of date (something on which Tory whips might give them more leeway), Lib Dems and other AV campaigners know the chances of a “yes” vote are significantly reduced. At the moment, the referendum is scheduled for May 5, when there are regional elections in Wales and Scotland. That should boost the turnout in those places, where support for AV is strongest.
So what chance the government suffering its first Commons defeat on the issue of the date? Read more
MPs are as confused as psephologists about the likely impact of the double dose of electoral reform which could hit voters in 2015. Not only are they trying to get their head round the possible effects of the alternative vote system, but they also have to factor in the ramifications of a fall in the number of seats from 650 to 600.
A study by the Electoral Reform Society soon after the election suggested AV could cost the Tories 25 seats, of which 22 would go to the Lib Dems.
But any Lib Dem rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of the number of their parliamentary colleagues rising by nearly half should read this post on PoliticalBetting. Mike Smithson suggests the system could end up wiping out the Lib Dems, as it means the end of tactical voting, which has benefitted the party both in the north, where voters want to keep out the Tories, and the South West, where they don’t want Labour.
Perhaps this is why Nick Clegg before the election called a switch to AV a “miserable little compromise”. Read more
It would have been more of a surprise if the coalition had decided to hold its referendum on voting reform on a different day; for example in October.
The working assumption for the last month has been that the ballot would co-incide with the May 5 local elections, as the BBC is reporting this morning. The only arguments against that had been that a] it could confuse people if they had to vote on two separate things and b] the Electoral Commission may not be in favour. Neither seem to be major obstacles.
The Lib Dems are itching to get on and hold the referendum as soon as possible; for many it is the one major reason for being in government – as strange as that may seem to sceptics.
Their first challenge will be explaining the AV system to people and then convincing them to care one way or another. The second will be rebutting a strong anti campaign by their supposed friends in the Tory party.
Meanwhile Labour will not hesitate to exploit the situation to its own advantage. Forget the fact that some Labour figures have gone public on their enthusiasm for electoral reform in recent years. (Some have seemed more sincere than others). Key frontbenchers see the referendum as a golden opportunity to force the downfall of the coalition, as splits appear between the yellow and blue partners. Read more