Marginals

Somewhere in Lib Dem HQ is a top secret target list. These aren’t the seats Nick Clegg visits; it’s an underground movement behind enemy lines. Not even Clegg will know the full battleplan. When Chris Rennard was leading campaigns, it was said that “the leader could never be trusted enough to see the canvas returns”. That probably still holds true.

Sadly I’ve failed in a long quest to uncover the list, but I’ve been given a few hints. The odds on Lib Dem wins have shortened considerably of late and I was waiting for a better moment to put down some money. But I’ve waited long enough. It’s time to take the gamble.

The strategy, if you can call it that, is to lay £5 on a eight seats that the Lib Dems have an outside chance of winning. They are split into four categories: Read more

Peter Kellner of YouGov has an excellent piece in the Sunday Times looking at polling in marginals Before Clegg (BC) and After the Debate (AD). It overturns another big election assumption: that the Tories will perform better in marginals.

He uses a combined sample of 10,000 from past YouGov polls to examine the 115 Lab-Con marginals that should turn blue with a swing of eight per cent. Read more

A remarkable IpsosMori/Reuters poll in some of the marginals David Cameron must win to secure a majority. The overall numbers show a swing of 5.5 per cent to the Tories — which is short of an overall majority.*

But the most striking finding is the renewed confidence in Gordon Brown’s leadership. Cameron loses on every count. I’ll leave it to these charts to tell the story. Read more

David Cameron really needs to win the two Labour seats in Dudley (and the nearby marginal in Halesowen & Rowley Regis) to secure a majority. Here are three conclusions from my wholly unscientific survey over the Easter weekend. Read more