Turnout

After selecting a couple of outsiders, I’ve gone for a safer bet on low turnout.

The received wisdom is that this is a close election with big stakes that is re-engaging voters. Some commentators think turnout could even rise from what is a very low base of 61 to over 70 per cent, which is much closer to the historic average.

But from the limited time I’ve spent speaking to voters in marginals, this doesn’t ring true. None of the parties have really captured the public imagination in the way Tony Blair did in 1997, and even then turnout was only 71 per cent.

Labour voters are clearly fed up with Gordon Brown. Those unable to bring themselves to vote against Labour will just stay at home. As Matthew Taylor notes, Labour activists are worried about low turnout. The Gillian Duffy incident will not have soothed their concerns. In addition, young voters have been flocking to the Lib Dems, but that age group has a poor track record of actually voting. Read more

David Cameron really needs to win the two Labour seats in Dudley (and the nearby marginal in Halesowen & Rowley Regis) to secure a majority. Here are three conclusions from my wholly unscientific survey over the Easter weekend. Read more