October 24, 2007
Rosy forecasts carry economic health warning
Small earthquake: few hurt. This is what the International Monetary Fund is saying in its latest World Economic Outlook: world output grew 5.4 per cent last year and will grow 5.2 per cent this year and 4.8 per cent in 2008, only 0.4 percentage points less than expected last July. What conclusion, then, are we to draw? Is a substantial financial shock at the core of the world economy nigh on irrelevant? The answer is: maybe so, but there are also appreciable risks.
According to the IMF, the world is in the midst of a period of growth unrivalled since the early 1970s. Between 2004 and 2008, it forecasts, global growth will average 5.1 per cent a year and the rate of growth of world output per head will average 4 per cent (see chart). The driver of global growth has been emerging economies in general and Asian emerging economies in particular. Between 2004 and 2008, says the IMF, growth of emerging economies will average 7.8 per cent a year, while high-income countries will average only 2.7 per cent. Never before has world growth been so much higher than that of high-income countries.
The remainder of this column can be read here. Debate from our guest economists appears below.
