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December 18th, 2007

The Fed must not play Santa to the markets

By Kenneth Rogoff

US Federal Reserve officials were jolted last week by the cacophony of booing that greeted their quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut. Markets badly wanted double the amount. It is part of a growing town/gown rift between a model-oriented Fed and a profit-oriented financial community.

Market commentators, including some former Federal Open Market Committee members, almost unanimously expressed deep disappointment that the Fed did not seem more attuned to the growing risk of recession. The critics were especially peeved that the Fed’s statement did not contain a clear acknowledgement that short-term growth risks easily trump short-term risks to core inflation.

The negative rhetoric cooled a bit later in the week as the big central banks announced new measures to maintain market liquidity, and as high November inflation readings made the Fed’s balance of risk assessment seem somewhat more plausible.

Nevertheless, markets remain extremely sceptical. As housing prices sink and the credit crunch grinds on, top private forecasters have been scurrying to downgrade their 2008 growth estimates.

The remainder of this column can be read here. Debate from our panel of economists appears below.


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